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有淡季的市场,没有淡季的思想?你知道什么影响钢价的涨跃吗?

2022-09-16 11:19:38 来源:佛山市万庆物资有限公司 http://www.wanqingwz.com/ 阅读

7月开始了高温的模式,而钢价在渐渐下跌,淡季开始了吗?往后还要面临错锋用电政策呢。因此最近的钢铁行情,将会面临更严峻的考验。

July began the high temperature mode, and steel prices are gradually falling, the off-season began? In the future, we will have to face the wrong front electricity policy. Therefore, the recent steel market, will face a more severe test.

钢材是关系到国计民生的重要大宗商品,其价格的波动受到众多因素的影响。

Steel is an important commodity related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and its price fluctuations are affected by many factors.

76为例,现货价格涨跌互现,均价下跌

On July 6, for example, spot prices were mixed and average prices fell

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那么影响当前钢价因素有:

The factors affecting the current steel prices are:

1、据中钢协数据显示,20226月下旬,重点钢企粗钢日均产量209.91万吨,环比下降7.03%;钢材库存量1694.86万吨,比上一旬(及6月中旬)减少357.46万吨,降低17.42%

1. According to the data of CISA, in late June 2022, the average daily output of key steel enterprises was 2,099,100 tons, down 7.03% from the previous month on month; the steel inventory was 16.948,6 million tons, down 3.5746 million tons, from 10.00 (and mid-June) by 17.42%.

分析师观点:粗钢日产与钢材库存双双下降,且钢材库存降幅环比扩大,钢材供应将有所收缩,有利于缓解钢材市场供需矛盾,推动供需平衡,稳定钢材市场价格,稳定钢市发展预期,利好钢价。

Analysts' view: crude steel Nissan and steel inventory both fell, and steel inventory decline expanded month-on-month, steel supply will shrink, is conducive to alleviate the steel market supply and demand contradiction, promote the balance of supply and demand, stabilize steel market prices, stable steel market development expectations, good steel prices.

2、京时间75日晚,美元指数刷新近20年新高,最高一度近106.6欧元兑美元汇率则跌至近20年低点。能源股全线走低,埃克森美孚跌3.13%,雪佛龙跌2.7%,康菲石油跌6.97%,斯伦贝谢跌6.51%,西方石油跌2.22%

2. On the evening of July 5, Beijing time, the DOLLAR index hit a new 20-year high, and the highest exchange rate of nearly 106.6 euro against the US dollar fell to a nearly 20-year low against the US dollar. Energy stocks fell across the board, with Exxon Mobil down 3.13%, Chevron down 2.7%, Conocophillips down 6.97%, Schlumberger down 6.51% and Occidental oil down 2.22%.

分析师观点:美元指数创历史新高,引发全球对经济衰退的恐慌情绪;同时,美元升值导致以美元结算的货币的贬值,引发大宗商品价格下行压力增加。今天期货盘面一度深跌,全天呈现宽幅震荡走势,也是市场恐慌情绪的一种释放,中长期来看,大宗商品价格仍然承压运行,原材料对钢价支撑走弱。

Analysts: The dollar index hit record highs, raising global fears about a "recession" and a stronger dollar-dollar currencies, mounting downward pressure on commodity prices. Today's futures disk once fell deep, the whole day showed a wide shock trend, is also a release of market panic, in the medium and long term, commodity prices are still under pressure operation, raw materials to the steel price support is weak.

3、目前,22城今年首轮集中土拍已悉数收官,第二轮土拍进展近半。部分三四线城市也于近期开展了集中土拍。相关数据显示,得益于首轮集中供地实施、供地规则优化和拿地门槛降低,6月份土地市场成交环比回升,流拍现象有所好转。

3. At present, the first round of concentrated land auction in 22 cities this year has been completed, and the second round of land auction has progressed for nearly half. Some third-tier and fourth-tier cities have also recently launched a centralized land auction. Relevant data show that thanks to the implementation of the first round of centralized land supply, the optimization of land supply rules and the reduction of the threshold of land acquisition, the land market transaction in June rebounded month-on month, and the phenomenon of failed auction has improved.

分析师观点:随着市场信心恢复和融资环境改善,民营房地产企业拿地意愿或逐步回升,预计下半年土地市场成交将继续呈现回暖势头。但短期来看,楼市的寒冬仍在持续,建材钢需释放难有明显改观,利空钢价。

钢材价格是市场各方博弈的结果。影响钢材价格的因素有很多,最主要的是供求关系。影响供求关系的深层次因素有宏观经济、货币政策、汇率政策、出口因素、原材料成本、钢厂产量、市场库存、国际市场、期货和电子交易等。

Analysts' views: With the recovery of market confidence and the improvement of the financing environment, the willingness of private real estate enterprises to acquire land may gradually recover, and it is expected that the land market transaction will continue to show a recovery momentum in the second half of the year. But in the short term, the winter of the property market is still continuing, building materials steel needs to release is difficult to significantly improve, negative steel prices. Steel prices is the result of the game in the market. There are many factors affecting the price of steel, the most important is the relationship between supply and demand. The underlying factors affecting the supply and demand relations are macroeconomic, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, export factors, raw material costs, steel mill production, market inventory, international market, futures and electronic trading.

佛山市万庆物资有限公司建议想及时了解和掌握钢铁行业的动态变化,在平时的工作中,应关注钢铁产品产量旬报、月报,进出口快报,各类价格指数,社会库存,钢铁工业下游行业运行分析等重要统计信息,只有了解了行业的生产和运行情况,才能更好地把握市场。

Analysts' views: With the recovery of market confidence and the improvement of the financing environment, the willingness of private real estate enterprises to acquire land may gradually recover, and it is expected that the land market transaction will continue to show a recovery momentum in the second half of the year. But in the short term, the winter of the property market is still continuing, building materials steel needs to release is difficult to significantly improve, negative steel prices. Steel prices is the result of the game in the market. There are many factors affecting the price of steel, the most important is the relationship between supply and demand. The underlying factors affecting the supply and demand relations are macroeconomic, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, export factors, raw material costs, steel mill production, market inventory, international market, futures and electronic trading.

目前我国钢材贸易企业面临的形势比较严峻,全球经济放缓的趋势仍在持续,对我国经济增长的不利影响在扩大,市场需求减弱,生产成本仍处高位,出口困难,钢材价格仍在低位徘徊。而且国家

实施从紧的货币政策,既对企业资金运作提出更高的要求,也给企业运营带来较大困难,行业经济效益已从微利趋向面临亏损。形势逼人,要求我们要更加准确地把握市场。我们必须对国内外钢铁市

场形势、市场需求、价格波动原因等因素做更加深入的分析和研究

At present, China's steel trade enterprises are facing a relatively grim situation, the global economic slowdown The trend is still continuing, and the adverse impact on China's economic growth is expanding, and the market demand is weakening, Production costs are still high, exports are difficult, and steel prices are still hovering low. And the country The implementation of a tight monetary policy not only puts forward higher requirements for enterprise capital operation, but also for enterprises Industry operation brings great difficulties, the industry economic benefits have been faced from a small profit to a loss.terrain It requires us to grasp the market more accurately. We must treat the steel markets at home and abroad Field situation, market demand, price fluctuation reasons and other factors to do more in-depth analysis and research.


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